Santa Clara Real Estate Market Report - Sep 2026

September 2026

Santa Clara County

Market Outlook

Data through August 2026

September 2026

Housing Market Report

August marked a broad seasonal cooling across the Bay Area. Closings declined year over year in 13 of 14 counties and month over month in 12, while months of supply increased from July in 13 counties. The shift reflects the typical late-summer slowdown as the market transitions from the spring/summer peak toward the fall market peak.

Competition remained stronger than a year ago. The share of sales closing above list increased year over year in all 14 counties, while average days on market improved in 11. Price reductions increased in 10 counties, consistent with the seasonal rise in listing adjustments as the market moves toward fall and winter.

Single-family homes continued to show stronger market conditions than condos. Single-family closings fell year over year in nine counties but increased in five, and days on market declined in 13. The share of sales closing above list increased across every county. By contrast, condo price reductions increased in 12 counties, while condo days on market rose in six — signaling a more uneven recovery.

Condo momentum appears to be moderating after a strong summer. The condo median increased year over year in six counties and declined in eight, while the share of condos selling above list rose in only eight. August is the first month of data following new condo lending regulations, so it is too early to determine whether the slowdown reflects the regulations or the normal late-summer seasonal pattern.

San Francisco remains the regional standout. Condo sales increased 11% year over year to 214, the condo median rose 22% to $1.23 million, and active condo listings fell 36%. San Francisco was the only county where condos showed both meaningful price and closed transaction growth.

September watch: The strongest appreciation outside San Francisco was concentrated north of the city, with Marin posting the region’s second-highest year-over-year gain. Condo sales and pricing will be closely watched to determine whether August’s slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a broader shift. The performance of smaller versus larger condo buildings will also be important, particularly as the impact of the new lending regulations becomes clearer. Atherton’s nearly $10 million increase in its median price, driven by a few high-value sales, will be another notable test of whether recent gains will be sustained.

Sales: 639 single-family homes closed, down 13% YoY and 12% from July. Condo closings fell 9% YoY and 11% MoM to 140.

Prices: The single-family median fell 2% YoY to $1.85M, although price per square foot rose 2%. The condo median fell 6% to $682K and price per square foot fell 7%.

Inventory: Active listings increased 11% YoY to 1,756, with single-family actives up 12% and condos up 9%. New listings also increased 12%.

Demand: Single-family contracts fell 16%, absorption declined 18 points to 55%, and months of supply increased from 1.4 to 1.9.

Condos: Contracts fell 21%, absorption declined to 21%, and months of supply increased from 3.4 to 4.1.

Negotiation: Price reductions increased 21% for single family and 17% for condos. Single-family reductions reached 384, while the reduction rate rose to 30%.

Competition: Despite the weaker overall balance, 50% of single-family sales closed above list, up 3 points YoY, while days on market improved from 28 to 26.

MoM: Single-family and condo closings both declined, while single-family overbidding rose 2 points and condo overbidding rose 6 points to 26%.

Bottom line: Santa Clara is showing a clear loosening in overall market balance, with more inventory, fewer sales, lower absorption, and higher supply. Single-family transactions remain relatively competitive, but condos are experiencing more pronounced weakness.

Irina Luck

DRE# 01927187

Realtor®

M: 415.722.4461

[email protected]